In the US, the 5-year relative survival for bladder cancer is 79% (based on 2014-2021 data).[15]National Cancer Institute. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Cancer stat facts: bladder cancer. 2025 [internet publication].
https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/urinb.html
But survival varies considerably based on stage at diagnosis:[15]National Cancer Institute. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Cancer stat facts: bladder cancer. 2025 [internet publication].
https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/urinb.html
In situ: 97.9%
Localised: 72.6%
Regional: 40.5%
Distant metastases: 9.1%
Most patients are diagnosed with in situ (50%) or localised bladder cancer (34%). Approximately 7% have regional spread to the lymph nodes at diagnosis, and 6% have distant metastases at diagnosis.[15]National Cancer Institute. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Cancer stat facts: bladder cancer. 2025 [internet publication].
https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/urinb.html
Additional factors associated with poorer prognosis include older age, female sex, and smoking.[13]Mancini M, Righetto M, Baggio G. Spotlight on gender-specific disparities in bladder cancer. Urologia. 2020 Aug;87(3):103-14.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31868559?tool=bestpractice.com
[167]Lin W, Pan X, Zhang C, et al. Impact of age at diagnosis of bladder cancer on survival: a surveillance, epidemiology, and end results-based study 2004-2015. Cancer Control. 2023 Jan-Dec;30:10732748231152322.
https://www.doi.org/10.1177/10732748231152322
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36662642?tool=bestpractice.com
[168]Kwan ML, Garren B, Nielsen ME, et al. Lifestyle and nutritional modifiable factors in the prevention and treatment of bladder cancer. Urol Oncol. 2019 Jun;37(6):380-6.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6200660
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29703514?tool=bestpractice.com
Certain histological subtypes, such as micropapillary, plasmacytoid, sarcomatoid, and neuroendocrine subtypes, are associated with a higher risk of progression and recurrence.[169]Dursun F, Elshabrawy A, Wang H, et al. Histological variants of non-muscle invasive bladder cancer: survival outcomes of radical cystectomy vs. bladder preservation therapy. Urol Oncol. 2022 Jun;40(6):275.e1-275.e10.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35351370?tool=bestpractice.com
[170]Sood A, Rudzinski JK, Labbate CV, et al. Long-term oncological outcomes in patients diagnosed with nonmetastatic plasmacytoid variant of bladder cancer: a 20-year University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center experience. J Urol. 2024 Feb;211(2):241-55.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37922370?tool=bestpractice.com
[171]McFadden J, Tachibana I, Adra N, et al. Impact of variant histology on upstaging and survival in patients with nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer undergoing radical cystectomy. Urol Oncol. 2024 Mar;42(3):69.e11-69.e16.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38267301?tool=bestpractice.com
Other unfavourable pathological features in non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer include presence of carcinoma in situ (CIS), lymphovascular invasion, multifocal tumours, residual tumour, or incomplete resection.[21]European Association of Urology. Non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (TaT1 and CIS). 2025 [internet publication].
https://d56bochluxqnz.cloudfront.net/documents/full-guideline/EAU-Guidelines-on-Non-muscle-Invasive-BC-2025.pdf
Low-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer
Low-grade, solitary, non-invasive bladder cancer has a 15-year recurrence risk of 65%, but progression occurs in <5% of patients. Treatment with immediate intravesical chemotherapy reduces the 2-year risk of recurrence by up to 20%.[172]Lamm D, Colombel M, Persad R, et al. Clinical practice recommendations for the management of non-muscle invasive bladder cancer. Eur Urol. 2008 Oct 1;7(10):651-66. The effect of intravesical chemotherapy is not repeated in patients with intermediate- or high-risk bladder cancer.[173]Gudjonsson S, Adell L, Merdasa F, et al. Should all patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer receive early intravesical chemotherapy after transurethral resection? The results of a prospective randomised multicentre study. Eur Urol. 2009 Apr;55(4):773-80.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19153001?tool=bestpractice.com
Intermediate-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer
Large, multifocal, or recurrent low-grade Ta bladder cancer increases risk for both recurrence and progression. Intravesical chemotherapy reduces recurrence by up to 20% in the short term, but has not been found to reduce progression. Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), while more toxic than chemotherapy, decreased risk of recurrence in trials that included BCG maintenance regimens.[95]Chou R, Selph S, Buckley DI, et al. Intravesical therapy for the treatment of nonmuscle invasive bladder cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis. J Urol. 2017 May;197(5):1189-99.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28027868?tool=bestpractice.com
[174]Malmstrom PU, Sylvester RJ, Crawford DE, et al. An individual patient data meta-analysis of the long-term outcome of randomised studies comparing intravesical mitomycin C versus bacillus Calmette-Guerin for non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer. Eur Urol. 2009 Aug;56(2):247-56.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19409692?tool=bestpractice.com
High-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer
CIS, high-grade, and T1 invasive bladder cancer carries a high risk of disease progression and death from bladder cancer. Patients at high risk of recurrence and/or progression do poorly on recommended maintenance BCG schedules of 3 years.[175]Cambier S, Sylvester RJ, Collette L, et al. EORTC nomograms and risk groups for predicting recurrence, progression, and disease-specific and overall survival in non-muscle-invasive stage Ta-T1 urothelial bladder cancer patients treated with 1-3 years of maintenance Bacillus Calmette-Guérin. Eur Urol. 2016 Jan;69(1):60-9.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26210894?tool=bestpractice.com
Muscle-invasive bladder cancer
Once muscle invasion occurs, overall survival is approximately 50% even with cystectomy.[1]van Hoogstraten LMC, Vrieling A, van der Heijden AG, et al. Global trends in the epidemiology of bladder cancer: challenges for public health and clinical practice. Nat Rev Clin Oncol. 2023 May;20(5):287-304.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36914746?tool=bestpractice.com
Combination cisplatin-based chemotherapy produces frequent objective responses, but <10% of patients with metastatic disease are cured with chemotherapy.[176]Lamm DL, Riggs DR, Traynelis CT, et al. Apparent failure of current intravesical chemotherapy prophylaxis to influence the long term course of superficial transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder. J Urol. 1995 May;153(5):1444-50.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7714962?tool=bestpractice.com
The introduction of immunotherapy with immune-checkpoint inhibitors has considerably improved treatment of patients with metastatic bladder cancer, with some patients having durable responses with these agents.[177]Rhea LP, Mendez-Marti S, Kim D, et al. Role of immunotherapy in bladder cancer. Cancer Treat Res Commun. 2021;26:100296.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468294220301313?via%3Dihub
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33421822?tool=bestpractice.com
Immune-checkpoint inhibitors can be particularly beneficial to older patients who may not be candidates for chemotherapy.[178]Soria F, Mosca A, Gontero P. Drug strategies for bladder cancer in the elderly: is there promise for the future? Expert Opin Pharmacother. 2019 Aug;20(11):1387-96.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31081702?tool=bestpractice.com
Without treatment, muscle-invasive tumours cause increasingly severe local symptoms, with death from metastatic disease likely within 2 years.[179]Martini A, Sfakianos JP, Renström-Koskela L, et al. The natural history of untreated muscle-invasive bladder cancer. BJU Int. 2020 Feb;125(2):270-5.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31310696?tool=bestpractice.com
[180]Skinner EC. Treatment of muscle-invasive bladder cancer in older patients. Am Soc Clin Oncol Educ Book. 2016;35:e228-33.
https://ascopubs.org/doi/10.1200/EDBK_158974
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27249728?tool=bestpractice.com
[181]Kessler ER, Kukreja JB, Geiger CL, et al. Treating elderly patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer. J Natl Compr Canc Netw. 2020 Jun;18(6):783-90.
https://jnccn.org/view/journals/jnccn/18/6/article-p783.xml
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32502977?tool=bestpractice.com
Patients are often elderly and may have a high comorbidity burden, however treatment with curative intent should always be considered in preference to palliation for patients with muscle-invasive tumours.