Subsequent pregnancies
GDM recurs in 30% to 84% of subsequent pregnancies.[22]Kim C, Berger DK, Chamany S. Recurrence of gestational diabetes mellitus: a systematic review. Diabetes Care. 2007 May;30(5):1314-9.
https://care.diabetesjournals.org/content/30/5/1314.long
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17290037?tool=bestpractice.com
Risk factors for recurrence are older age, increased BMI, and higher weight gain between pregnancies.[122]Schwartz N, Nachum Z, Green MS. Risk factors of gestational diabetes mellitus recurrence: a meta-analysis. Endocrine. 2016 Sep;53(3):662-71.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27000082?tool=bestpractice.com
Development of type 2 diabetes
GDM is associated with an 8- to 10-fold increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes.[123]Lewey J, Beckie TM, Brown HL, et al. Opportunities in the postpartum period to reduce cardiovascular disease risk after adverse pregnancy outcomes: a scientific statement from the American Heart Association. Circulation. 2024 Feb 13;149(7):e330-46.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11185178
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38346104?tool=bestpractice.com
[124]Vounzoulaki E, Khunti K, Abner SC, et al. Progression to type 2 diabetes in women with a known history of gestational diabetes: systematic review and meta-analysis. BMJ. 2020 May 13;369:m1361.
https://www.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1361
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32404325?tool=bestpractice.com
A systematic review and meta-analysis found that eventually the majority of women with GDM develop type 2 diabetes.[125]Li Z, Cheng Y, Wang D, et al. Incidence rate of type 2 diabetes mellitus after gestational diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 170,139 women. J Diabetes Res. 2020;2020:3076463.
https://www.doi.org/10.1155/2020/3076463
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32405502?tool=bestpractice.com
Another study found that GDM predicted increased rates of type 2 diabetes, with the relative risk increasing substantially with each additional affected pregnancy.[126]Diaz-Santana MV, O'Brien KM, Park YM, et al. Persistence of risk for type 2 diabetes after gestational diabetes mellitus. Diabetes Care. 2022 Apr 1;45(4):864-70.
https://www.doi.org/10.2337/dc21-1430
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35104325?tool=bestpractice.com
Risk of type 2 diabetes did decline with time, but remained elevated for more than 35 years.[126]Diaz-Santana MV, O'Brien KM, Park YM, et al. Persistence of risk for type 2 diabetes after gestational diabetes mellitus. Diabetes Care. 2022 Apr 1;45(4):864-70.
https://www.doi.org/10.2337/dc21-1430
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35104325?tool=bestpractice.com
Women with a history of GDM should therefore be screened regularly for type 2 diabetes, even late in life.[126]Diaz-Santana MV, O'Brien KM, Park YM, et al. Persistence of risk for type 2 diabetes after gestational diabetes mellitus. Diabetes Care. 2022 Apr 1;45(4):864-70.
https://www.doi.org/10.2337/dc21-1430
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35104325?tool=bestpractice.com
A post hoc analysis of the Diabetes Prevention Program demonstrated that predominantly middle-aged women with a self-reported history of GDM had an approximately 50% reduction in the incidence of diabetes with an intensive lifestyle program or the use of metformin compared with placebo.[127]Ratner RE, Christophi CA, Metzger BE, et al; Diabetes Prevention Program Research Group. Prevention of diabetes in women with a history of gestational diabetes: effects of metformin and lifestyle interventions. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 2008 Dec;93(12):4774-9.
https://academic.oup.com/jcem/article/93/12/4774/2627340
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18826999?tool=bestpractice.com
One meta-analysis found that among women with a history of GDM, the estimated risk of developing type 2 diabetes after 10 years of follow-up was 20%, increasing to nearly 60% after 50 years.[125]Li Z, Cheng Y, Wang D, et al. Incidence rate of type 2 diabetes mellitus after gestational diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 170,139 women. J Diabetes Res. 2020;2020:3076463.
https://www.doi.org/10.1155/2020/3076463
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32405502?tool=bestpractice.com
The risk of developing type 2 diabetes after GDM is roughly equivalent across ethnic groups.[124]Vounzoulaki E, Khunti K, Abner SC, et al. Progression to type 2 diabetes in women with a known history of gestational diabetes: systematic review and meta-analysis. BMJ. 2020 May 13;369:m1361.
https://www.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.m1361
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32404325?tool=bestpractice.com