Prognosis

The majority of patients (around 80%) with acute pancreatitis have mild disease and will improve within 3 to 7 days of conservative management. The overall mortality rate is low (approximately 5%) but this rises to 25% to 30% in severe acute pancreatitis.[8][56] The cause of pancreatitis should be identified, and a plan to prevent recurrence should be initiated before the patient is discharged from hospital. 

Long-term prognosis is based on the aetiology and patient adherence to lifestyle modifications. Acute pancreatitis generally resolves and leaves pancreatic function intact. In some patients, acute pancreatitis can become recurrent acute pancreatitis, often leading to chronic pancreatitis. More than one fifth of patients with acute pancreatitis experience recurrence after discharge.[189]​ The risk is higher among people who smoke, people with alcohol use disorder, and men.[190]​ Overall, episodes of acute pancreatitis associated with chronic pancreatitis are associated with lower mortality than episodes of acute pancreatitis without chronic pancreatitis.[191]

Scoring tools such as APACHE II, Ranson, or Glasgow are in widespread use but add limited value.[56][57][58][59][60]​​ Their use is not recommended by evidence-based guidelines.[9][54] [ APACHE II scoring system Opens in new window ] [ Pancreatitis Prognosis Criteria Opens in new window ] ​​

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