Prognosis

For most patients, bleeding is self-limiting, and will have stopped by the time of endoscopy.[2]​ Prognosis is excellent in patients without associated disease or complications.

The Rockall post-endoscopy score

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in the UK recommends carrying out a full Rockall score post-endoscopy.[36] [ Rockall Score for Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding Opens in new window ] ​​ A score of ≤2 is associated with a low risk of further bleeding or death.

The score includes clinical criteria (increasing age, presence of comorbidities, shock) as well as endoscopic findings (such as source of bleeding and/or stigmata of recent bleeding) to identify patients at risk of adverse outcome after acute upper GI bleeding.[39][45]​ The total score is calculated by simple addition. A score of <3 carries a good prognosis, but a total score of 8 or higher carries a high risk of mortality. The Rockall score has been shown to be more accurate in predicting mortality (with an optimal cut-off of ≥5 for post-endoscopy Rockall) than the risk of rebleeding.[66][85]

NICE recommends a repeat endoscopy, with treatment as appropriate, for all patients at high risk of rebleeding, particularly if there is doubt about adequate haemostasis at the first endoscopy.[36]

Rebleeding occurs in about 8% to 15% of patients. It usually occurs within the first 24 hours and most often in patients with high-risk factors for ing, including:[84]

  • Age (>65 years)

  • Haematemesis and/or haematochezia at presentation

  • Haemodynamic instability/shock

  • Alcohol-use disorder

  • Aspirin/non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use

  • Multiple blood transfusions

  • Comorbidities (anaemia, chronic liver disease, coronary artery disease, COPD, renal failure)

  • Actively bleeding lesions.

Patients with high risk factors require more intense monitoring and should continue to be evaluated in hospital for at least 48 hours.

Patients with no risk factors for rebleeding should be observed in hospital and discharged.

Use of this content is subject to our disclaimer